In the heart of Colombia, a battle for the future of the environment is being waged, with activists like Yuvelis Morales Blanco at the forefront. Her story is a testament to the resilience and determination of those fighting to protect their land and resources against the encroaching forces of fossil fuel extraction. As a Goldman Environmental Prize recipient, Morales has already made significant strides in halting oil extraction and fracking in Puerto Wilches, a victory that has given her hope for the future.
However, the recent election of Abelardo de la Espriella as president has cast a shadow over these hard-won gains. De la Espriella, a far-right lawyer, has pledged to exploit fossil fuels to the fullest extent possible, a stark contrast to the leftist administration of Gustavo Petro, which had staked its presidency on the energy transition. This shift in government marks a setback for environmental progress, and Morales is not alone in her concern.
The environmental movement in Colombia is facing a new challenge, as campaigners like Morales have endured the world's highest homicide rates for three consecutive years. The incoming government is seen as a setback to their progress, and the future looks uncertain. The environmental agenda still divides Colombians, with the right-wing De la Espriella winning in nearly every municipality in the department, except for the areas where oil has been extracted and refined for decades.
The weight of fossil fuels in Colombia's economy has shrunk over the past four years, with non-mining, non-energy exports overtaking mining and energy exports for the first time in at least a decade. However, critics argue that a middle-income country like Colombia cannot simply turn its back on oil, coal, and gas, which still make up 5% of GDP. The fiscal deficit hitting 6.4% in 2025, its highest level since the pandemic, further complicates the situation.
Andrés Gómez, a petroleum engineer and the Latin America coordinator for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, believes that the right strategy for the country is not to abandon extractive revenues overnight. Instead, it is about managing the decline and benefiting from the 750,000 barrels of oil produced each day, even as exports of coffee, flowers, and fruit grow in parallel. Colombia is not an oil country, Gómez says, and neighbouring Venezuela is a far more attractive partner for the global energy market.
Despite the risks, Colombia has made significant progress in renewable energy, with its capacity growing from 200 to 3,600MW between 2022 and 2026. Based on these figures, Gómez believes that the Petro government's environmental bet was the right one. However, the new government is already rolling back the policies of the Pacto Histórico, the leftist coalition that has governed the country since 2022, and the future looks uncertain.
Susana Muhamad, a political scientist and former environment minister, predicts a policy of containment, with a raft of environmental rules and initiatives designed to slow the transition begun under the current administration. The new government will likely repeat the pattern set by former presidents Álvaro Uribe and Juan Manuel Santos, who championed the so-called 'mining locomotive' as one of the economy's main engines. The future environment minister, Fabio Arjona, has ruled out the abolition of the environmental licensing process, while calling for 'greater efficiency' and fewer 'obstacles'.
Muhamad is convinced that the fossil fuel push will be more aggressive than ever, particularly due to the alliance with the United States and the pressure Donald Trump will bring to bear. The Cordillera Occidental, a natural corridor linking the Andes to the Pacific and the Amazon, is a particularly vulnerable area, with huge potential for large-scale copper extraction. Across various parts of Colombia, mineral ambitions will collide with the country's old obstacle: violence.
The future of Colombia's environmental movement is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the battle for the future of the environment is far from over. Morales remains optimistic and has a message for the international community: countries will need to ensure that Colombia honours its fossil fuel treaties and safeguards the wellbeing of local communities to ensure a genuine energy transition.
